Author: Munro Stewart

Could Apple release a smaller and cheaper mid-range 5.4" iPhone in 2020, or even 2019? Here’s a theory for why, when, and how Apple might release a 5.4″ iPhone as a smaller and cheaper mid-range device to replace the iPhone 8 at about the $649 price point, but which could also be not too much larger in size than the 4″ iPhone SE.

Good Thing, Small Package

I wonder if Apple could announce a surprise 5.4″ iPhone in September 2019 with about a 1602 x 740 pixel screen at 326 PPI. It would be a smaller version of the 6.1″ XR, just like the 5.8″ XS is to the 6.5″ XS Max, and it would be physically not too much larger than the iPhone SE. [Link]

The inspiration for this article comes from the above thought I wrote previously on my website and social media. John Gruber from Daring Fireball made my day by taking the time to respond, pointing out that such a device would be unlikely to be released in the fall of 2019. I most certainly agree with this. Yet here I am anyway, thankfully inspired to write a few more of my thoughts behind the possibility of a 5.4" iPhone, including why, when, and in what form Apple might release the device.

It would be delightful if they did, but that seems impossible given how leaky the supply chain is.

— John Gruber (@gruber) September 6, 2019

Leaky Mid-range Math

• 4.7 - 0.7 = 4.0" - iPhone 5/SE
• 5.4 - 0.7 = 4.7" - iPhone 6/SE2
• 4.7 + 0.7 = 5.4" - iPhone 11?
• 5.4 + 0.7 = 6.1" - iPhone XR/11?
• 6.5 - 0.7 = 5.8" - iPhone XS/Pro
• 5.8 + 0.7 = 6.5" - iPhone XS/Pro Max
• ----
• 5.4 - 0.6 = 4.8" - Test Device/Size?
• 6.1 + 0.6 = 6.7" - Test Device/Size?

So the supply chain production leaks and all of the rumors for this year point to only updates to the 5.8" XS, 6.1" XR, and 6.5" XS Max. However, there has at least been one small leak about a 5.4" iPhone, which I will talk about later on in this article, even if it's for the 2020 phones. While it's quite likely that the top-tier devices end up being the 5.4" and 6.7" versions from that leak, I wonder does Apple really want to change the size of the XS from 5.8" to 5.4" so soon? If not, would the above list of devices point to a possible range of display sizes that Apple could have been testing and planned to produce in the end?

Apple made 5 versions of the 3.5" phone, from iPhone to iPhone 4S. They made 4 versions of the 4.0" phone, from iPhone 5 to iPhone SE. If they release a 4.7" "SE2" in the spring of 2020 they'll have made 5 versions of the 4.7" phone, from iPhone 6 to iPhone SE2. But they are only going to make 2 versions of the 6.5" device, in 2018 and 2019, just to bump it up not even 0.2 inches to 6.7" in 2020? That doesn't quite sound like what Apple has typically done in the past, which is pick a size and resolution, commit to it and stick with it for a number of generations.

It would be interesting if Apple had planned to evenly space out the size of these devices, going up from the 4.0" and 4.7" sizes, up to the 5.4" and 6.1" sizes. If they did release a 5.4" device as their regular mid-range and mainstream device at some point, along with a budget 4.7" in spring 2020, they would end up with 3 evenly spaced out display sizes of 4.7", 5.4", and 6.1" for their non-Pro phones.

Mysterious $649 iPhone Rumor

• $399 - iPhone 4.7" - SE 2
• $649 - iPhone 5.4" - 11
• $749 - iPhone 6.1" - 11
• $999 - iPhone Pro 5.8" - 11 Pro
• $1099 - iPhone Pro 6.5" - 11 Pro

In a rumor from EDN in April of 2019, it was mentioned that there could be 4.7" iPhone update in 2020 with a potential price of $649. Again my theory might be unlikely, but I wonder if this device to be released in spring 2020 will target a lower price point, similar to the price point of the original iPhone SE, at $399 or $499. To achieve this price point, Apple may or may not have to design the 4.7" iPhone SE successor with a metal or plastic casing and no wireless charging. Potentially this design could be externally more like the original iPhone SE and recent iPad Pros with flat metal sides and back, as opposed to the iPhone 8 glass design with wireless charging.

However, Apple could still have a device planned to target that $649 price point, making that part of the rumor also true but in a different phone. I wonder if this is where this new mid-tier 5.4" iPhone with Face ID could come in, either this year or more likely in the fall of 2020. It might make sense, because like the XS being $100 cheaper than the XS Pro, this new 5.4" iPhone could potentially be priced $100 cheaper than the XR from 2018. Of course it's possible that they change these prices slightly going forward, but the basic tiers would be segmented nicely in the above list, hitting base price points of around $400, $700, and $1000.

Back To The Future In 2020

I wonder if Apple could announce a surprise 5.4″ iPhone in September 2019 with about a 1602 x 740 pixel screen at 326 PPI. It would be a smaller version of the 6.1″ XR, just like the 5.8″ XS is to the 6.5″ XS Max, and it would be physically not too much larger than the iPhone SE.

While it's unlikely that Apple announces or releases a 5.4" iPhone in 2019, the thinking behind my original thought was mainly the idea that the rumored 5.4" iPhone for 2020 could possibly be a smaller version of the XR/iPhone line, and not a new device size for the current XS/Pro line.

In June of 2019 some completely unknown guy named Ming-Chi Kuo wrote this super far-fetched note about Apple potentially releasing 5.4" and 6.7" iPhones for release in the fall of 2020. Seriously though, this idea instantly becomes a pretty likely scenario, because of the legendary analyst that Ming-Chi Kuo is. However, I just wonder if there is a small chance that this rumor is only partially true, since it was still pretty early in the design testing and rumor mill for the 2020 iPhones. Sometimes these rumors are based in evidence but a little off, like in February of 2017 when he was thinking that the new 2017 iPhone design, the eventual iPhone X, would have a 5.8" screen, but that it would include a 5.15" usable screen with a virtual button area integrated below as part of the screen.

I wonder if the 5.4" device he is seeing evidence of could possibly, just maybe, be an early testing device that ends up being the smaller version of the current XR mid-range device, while the 5.8" and 6.5" XS/Pro device sizes remain the same going into 2020 and the future.

Surprise "Product"ion

• September 10th - Release 3 phones, and announce 1 other phone
• September 11th - Start production of the announced phone - 5.4" iPhone
• December 6th? - Release the announced phone in December or November

As far as this 5.4" phone being released in 2019, it's certainly unlikely. We may never be surprised by a new iPhone again because of leaks coming out well before the Apple event announcements. If Apple was to ever surprise us again with an iPhone product, I wondered if there is any chance that they could pull it off by following the above strategy and schedule? Probably not, but it was just another crazy idea I had behind the unlikely idea of a 5.4" iPhone being announced in September, but still released later the same year in December, and at least still being released before Christmas.

Basically, now that Apple is releasing so many phones in the fall, could they delay the release of just one of those phones until December, but announce it in September? On top of this, could that one phone each year be some type of new design that they are trying to hide, now that they seem to be staggering a single new device each year, with the iPhone X in 2017, and iPhone XR in 2018?

One interesting thing about this schedule, if it was at all possible, is that the strategy might possibly be repeatable. For instance, in 2020 they could redesign only the 5.8" device with an in-display fingerprint reader and/or camera under the display, but leave the other three devices with the current design. Those three devices would go into production in about July, and the single device with a new design would go into production in about September after the fall Apple event, and be released later in December or November.

Started From The Top

• 2017 Fall - Pro Small - X at $999
• 2018 Fall - Pro Large, Regular Large - XS Max at $1099, XR at $749
• 2019 Fall - Regular Small - 5.4" iPhone at $599-$699? $649?
• 2020 Spring - Budget Classic - 4.7" SE2 at $399-$499?

It could make sense to release a smaller mainstream tiered iPhone this fall or winter. One reason for using this release schedule is that there appears to be a more legitimate rumor and frequent prediction of a budget device coming out next spring. As I noted above, it appears to be sounding more and more likely that this could be a 4.7" device based in some way on the iPhone 8, according to another report from Nikkei earlier this September.

If Apple was to release a 5.4" iPhone in this smaller form factor this year, then I would think many people would buy this device immediately and see this phone as a mainstream successor in price to the iPhone 8 and in size to the iPhone 5/SE, even though the $649 price is higher than the SE. If Apple doesn't release a 5.4" iPhone before the release of the physically larger but lower priced 4.7" budget device in the spring of 2020, then all of the people who buy this other potential SE successor, possibly priced in the budget category at a price of around $399, won't be interested in buying this $649 5.4" device in the fall of 2020. I would think that Apple might prefer making more money on larger margins, by getting more people to first buy this $649 phone in 2019 with the new small bezel design, as opposed to that $399 phone in 2020 with the old large bezel design.

Besides releasing a more expensive mainstream 5.4" before the more budget 4.7" update in the spring of 2020, Apple might also not mind having this 5.4" phone at $649 be released in December because it would be released after their high-end phones. Some people will wait until December because they want the smaller, cheaper 5.4" device. But many people want the larger, more premium devices just because they are the premium devices, or because they are available at the announcement. And there could even be people who will debate between the $999 5.8" iPhone Pro and the $649 5.4" iPhone, who end up going with the Pro because they want it now and don't want to wait.

99 Problems, And A Big Notch Was One

Besides starting near the top prices of the product line in the fall of 2017 with the iPhone X and going to the bottom prices of the product line in the spring of 2020 with the iPhone SE 2, here are a few more reasons why 2019 might make sense as the perfect time to release a smaller and cheaper 5.4" version of the iPhone XR from 2018. Again, 2020 is more likely because we haven't heard any rumors or leaks, but nonetheless now would make sense if Apple had planned this all out beforehand for various reasons.

• Making the notches smaller for 2019 makes this 5.4" or a 4.8" device possible
• Making phones thicker for 2019 makes a decent battery size and life possible
• It would make a "new" device for 2019, to follow new X in 2017, and XR in 2018
• Indecision on whether they should make a 4.8" or 5.4" regular small iPhone
• Cost reductions in Face ID since 2017, making a $649 smaller device possible
• Cost reductions in other areas from the larger and similar design XR device

Now We're Here

So on September 10th, in a couple days, we're likely to hear about the release of updates to the 5.8", 6.1", and 6.5" iPhones for 2019, which have been rumored for a long time. Then, in 2020 the most likely scenario at this point appears to be high-end 5.4" and 6.7" Pro iPhones.

But keep your eye out for the small hope of a small phone, with the idea that the rumored 5.4" iPhone might be the mid-range iPhone, making it the new mainstream iPhone. It might make sense to equally space out the sizes going from the classic 4.7", up to the current sizes of 5.4" and 6.1" phones. And it might not be a coincidence that the difference between 6.5" and 5.8" is 0.7", while the difference between 6.1" and 5.4" is that same 0.7". As John Gruber mentioned, a 5.4" device to go along with the current 6.1" phone could be "delightful". Especially for people who might want a smaller and cheaper mid-range device around $599-$699, so they don't have to pay over $1000 for a phone.

Here are the potential names I would use for a new disc-less or all digital Xbox.

Predicted

• Xbox One S All-Digital Edition
• Xbox One E
• Xbox One D - For "Digital"
• Xbox One Digital

As far as what they are likely to call it, I think Xbox One E is certainly a possibility. One of the reasons is because that is the name they used for an updated version previously, the Xbox 360 E. As long as they still like that scheme, they could stick with it. I am aware that it has been rumored to be called Xbox One S All-Digital Edition, so that is very likely as well. I just wonder if there is a possibility of that name being more of  a behind the scenes full name, and they go with a simpler brand name at retail for customers. Probably not, but you never know.

Suggested

• Xbox One T
• Xbox One R
• Xbox One E
• Xbox One TV
• Xbox One Tiny
• Xbox One Small

I like the simplicity of using single letters for different products in a product line. Plus, Microsoft has been using that type of branding for both the Xbox One S and Xbox One X, as well as the most recent versions of the Xbox 360 S and Xbox 360 E. So it makes sense to stick with the single letter naming scheme for this version as well, instead of using a more full name like the rumored "All-Digital Edition", or the previous Arcade and Elite of the 360.

I like R better than E because it is commonly used for higher end devices and they are not yet using that letter for any Xbox One device. Using letters like A, C, E, G might typically be thought of as lower tier devices. Using letters like R, S, T, X might typically be thought of as higher tier devices. So basically, I'd go with R because it sounds cooler and is still a letter less than S and X, which are higher end devices and already in use. Or I'd go with T because it might sound even better than R, and could denote the longer name of Tiny or TV, similar to how the current S could denote the longer name of Small or Slim.

Xbox One R

There are admittedly a couple reasons not to call the device the Xbox One T, and use Xbox One R instead. First, if they want to follow one style of typical letter naming scheme, a lower letter denotes a lesser capable or more budget device. With that scheme, this new device should use a letter lower alphabetically than S. In that case, Xbox One R or Xbox One E makes more sense. However, you don't have to make lesser letters mean a lesser device. So Xbox One T is still fine to use if you think it's the best name, and T also comes one letter after S, which I think could be interesting to signify that it comes after the Xbox One S device chronologically.

Similarly, if they were to ever update the Xbox One X with a smaller design they could consider naming it the Xbox One Z, which comes shortly after X alphabetically and after the Xbox One X device chronologically. Using the letters S, T, X, and Z might be the four best letters to use when naming these products.

Second, if they do eventually release a dongle or stick Xbox device, or even an Xbox TV integrated into regular TVs, then the distinction between the names Xbox One TV and Xbox One T could be confusing in the future. However, it might also make sense going forward, because the Xbox One T could morph into the Xbox TV. People might associate that T with TV, and see that the Xbox TV is a further evolution, or even smaller and integrated version of the older Xbox One T, with similar features. The Xbox One T would be like the console box version, and the Xbox TV would be the version integrated into TVs or as a small stick or dongle.

Xbox One T

I like T better than E, and possibly even R, for multiple reasons. While it's debatable for sure, I think it might just sound better than R and be more preferable to consumers. Meaning that if you were just to pick 3 letters to use for branding that you would choose S, T, and X for your three products simply because they are the most marketable and cool sounding. S, T, and X are also in order if you don't count those weird U, V, and W letters that companies don't generally use for naming products with letters.

Another reason I might like T better than R though, is for what it "stands" for. While the name for a product with a single letter branding scheme should stand on its own and just sound good, it might not hurt if it also brings reference to certain words as well, like S does with Small, Slim, or Sleek. Using Xbox One T makes sense in this regard, even if the most important aspect is just using the best sounding letter. So I like that the T can stand for Tiny, Television, or TV, and that people might associate it with those words.

In particular, I like that the S in Xbox One S could be lengthened to the full name Small, and the T in the Xbox One T could be lengthened to the full name Tiny. And possibly the X in Xbox One X could be an acronym for "Xtra", just like XL means extra large. They could even potentially use these full names in certain places in branding or at least marketing. Salespeople could use the longer name to explain the consoles to consumers, and it could help consumers understand the main difference between the devices. "Oh, the S is the small one smaller than the original, the T is the tiny one that's good for using for TV and movies, and the X is the extra large one that's extra powerful for gaming."

However, the most important thing is having a simple name that sounds best. So that is why I think they should stick with the single letter naming, and use the name Xbox One T or Xbox One R.

Here are the prices and features I'd put in the new 2019 iPad and iPad Mini products.

Why

• Keep the existing budget iPad in the lineup for a low cost device
• Put a bit newer technology in the other entry level iPads to make them desirable
• Raise the prices a bit if needed for a bit newer technology
• Include laminated display and thinner chassis because it's important
• Price iPad and iPad Mini only slightly different, not a much cheaper Mini
• Keep the old design with Touch ID to keep costs down some still though

Prices

• iPad 9.7" - 2018 - $299 32 GB, $399 128 GB
• iPad Mini 7.9" - 2019 - $449 64 GB, $549 256 GB
• iPad 10.5" - 2019 - $499 64 GB, $599 256 GB

Features

• Same Design - Touch ID and Bezels
• Similar Display Sizes and Resolutions - 7.9" and 10.5"
• Thinner Chassis for iPad - Like Mini 4 and Pro 10.5
• Laminated Display - And Anti-Reflective
• A12 Processer
• 3 GB RAM
• Apple Pencil Gen 1
• Touch ID Gen 2
• Wifi 802.11ac
• Bluetooth 5

Notes

About

December, 2017

December, 2017

December, 2017

It sounds like Google has aquired much of HTC's hardware team and some non-exclusive IP in their latest 1+ billion deal. But I also read that HTC will likely continue on with a new phone separately, using the HTC brand name. So this might mean that Google isn't going to use the HTC name for a product, and may not have acquired the rights to the brand name. This makes sense, as they have now branded their smartphone and some other hardware products as "Pixel". Before that, they had used the "Nexus" brand name for many products.

Back in 2012, it sounded like Google did a similar but slightly different type of acquisition with Motorola. That deal was worth 12+ billion, and they acquired the hardware team and IP. But I believe they also acquired the brand name, and the entire Motorola company, in that much bigger deal. However, they haven't kept the brand name, and did not use it on many products. I believe Lenovo later bought the rights to the Moto and Motorola brand names along with some other assets in a deal with Google.

Missed Opportunity

I find it interesting that Google ended up not using the Motorola brand name, and selling the brand name to Lenovo. And with this smaller HTC deal, it sounds like they again won't be using the brand name in their large purchase of a fairly prominent hardware company's assets. Just like Moto, HTC is a hardware brand that has actually been around for a very long time, going back to Microsoft's Pocket PC mobile OS.

I wonder if Google missed an opportunity when making their decisions to buy HTC and Motorola. HTC may not be a strong enough brand name. But Motorola, and their nickname brand Moto, were and are very strong brand names. So much so, that Lenovo purchased Motorola and its name from Google. And they even decided to keep the brand name and ditched its own brand name for the Moto phones. It sounded like they originally thought they would go with "Moto by Lenovo", and even decided against that to just use Moto by itself as the brand name for Moto branded phones.

Brand Name Value

Brand names can be quite valuable. Other good brand names in the smartphone technology space that have been acquired in deals include Nokia and Palm. If you either want to use your own brand name like "Google Phone", or a brand name you come up with like "Pixel", then you make the decision that you don't want to buy a company partially for its brand name. But Google payed so much for Motorola, a brand name that was up there with Nokia and Palm, because of its history with the popular Moto Razr and other phones.

And now it looks like Google is getting serious again about upping their hardware game and getting a better team in-house. To go head to head with the iPhone like most articles say. But they have chosen not to buy an established brand name as part of the costly deal when other companies have payed a lot of money largely, or at least partially, for the brand names of Moto, Nokia, and Palm. Personally, I agree that not using HTC as their main smartphone brand is probably the best move. But it still makes me think of that big deal for Motorola as well. I just think Google might have been able to get a leg up if they had made more of a commitment to the established Moto brand by using it for the first smartphone they developed in-house.

But Android Won

Of course, it's worth noting that both the Nokia and Palm acquisitions did not turn out well. Maybe Google knew what it was doing when it decided not to go with the Moto brand name, but go with their own brand "Google Nexus". It's Android that is still going strong, while the Palm and Nokia brand names were kind of squandered by HP and Microsoft.

There are so many other factors though. I still think Microsoft and HP were wise to use the strong Nokia and Palm brand names after their equally huge deals for those companies. Microsoft's deal for Nokia was around 7 billion, and HP's deal for Palm around 1 billion. But at least they wanted to use the great smartphone brand names. Windows Mobile and Palm OS are basically dead for now and both companies resold the brand names of Nokia and Palm just as Google resold the Moto and Motorola brand names. However Google payed around 12 billion for Moto and 1 billion for HTC, but it doesn't look like they will use the brand names at all.

Tough Decision

It's a touch decison though. How far do they go with it? Would we now have a "Moto Home" and a "Moto Notebook"? Google decided they didn't want to use Motorola, and now HTC, as brands for their smartphone or other hardware devices. I'm not saying they made the wrong decision for sure. But they sure payed a hefty price, especially in the Motorola deal, to end up not using such a strong brand name. They are paying billions of dollars in these hardware deals to further their commitment to making their own Android devices with integrated hardware and software. But they may have missed an opportunity to at least start off using a solid smartphone brand name like Moto, HTC, or some other established brand, when they made these huge acquisition deals.

The website Heartya was intended to be an entertainment website for sharing picks, lists, and rankings of great music, movies, shows, and games, but it was never fully created.

July, 2017

July, 2017