Category: Play

I organized my entire music library so that every album now has either 2, 4, 6, or 8 singles or picks in it. Believe it or not, I don't think I have OCD, but it was incredibly rewarding and worthwhile nonetheless.

Please don't judge me that my new favorite music radio station is Underground 80s on SomaFM, where they play some great upbeat classic pop tunes, which is an unusual new obsession for me and a genre of music I hadn't listened to much previously.

Here's a plan for the Raptors going forward, focused on getting all players who are the best 3PT shooters, deprioritizing great athletic defenders unless they'll shoot great too, and leave passing for the best passers on the team to setup 3PT shooters.

Strategy

TLDR - Shooting Yes, Defense Less, Passing Bests

• Build the team around everyone being a great shooter except for Barnes and Chomche
• So, focus less on defense, with defense being best possible only IF they can shoot great
• Put ball in hands of natural best passers like Barnes/Quickley, Mitchell/Mogbo for now
• So, focus less on everyone needing to pass in future, less turnovers, and 3PT specialists
• Keep PG/SG/SF/PF/C players who can be 40% 3PT shooters, defense 2nd skill hopefully
• Keep PF/C players who can be 35% 3PT shooters, defense 2nd skill important for C

Plan

TLDR - Lose This Year, Trade Poor Shooters, Get Great Shooters

• Lose for 1 year and get high 2025 draft pick
• Trade veterans and all poor shooters for young players/picks who are best shooters
• Play the young players more so you lose this year
• Make everyone take catch and shoot 3s, even Mitchell/Mogbo/Chomche/etc.
• Focus on getting the best young 3PT shooters
• Get best defense you can while having everyone shoot, and only great passers pass
• 2024 Raptors Draft Trade Idea

Shooting - Must Have 1st Skill (Upgrade defense after offense)

• I strongly believe that great shooters now win championships and are best players
• Lowry, Green, Kawhi, Gasol, VanVleet, Powell, Ibaka, Anunoby could all really shoot
• Getting young players for future who are exceptional shooters might be key
• The reason VanVleet was so undervalued was maybe his great 3PT shooting

Defense - Maybe Have 2nd Skill (Management likes too much?)

• Upgrade defense with 3-and-D players only after great offense with all 3PT shooters
• I wonder if team is again making mistake of too much defense, not enough shooting
• Defense is good to have, but not necessary for all players, and not if they can't shoot
• You likely only "need" 3 great defenders out there, one G, one F, and C or small ball C

Passing - Don't Need 3rd Skill (Coaching likes too much?)

• Leave the passing more to your best players, passers, and scorers, like Barnes/Quickley
• Not many players are great at 3 things, focus on shooting first, and defense second
• Focus on other players being great 40% 3PT shooters who take catch-and-shoot 3PTs
• You likely only "need" 2 great passers out there who can also score, one G and one F

Lineup - Current Depth Chart (Preferred Spots With Roster)

• PG - Quickley - Mitchell - Shead
• SG - Barrett - Dick - Temple
• SF - Brown - Walter - Mogbo
• PF - Barnes - Agbaji - Boucher
• C - Poeltl - Olynyk - Fernando
• 2W - Chomche - Battle - Carton

Keep - Keep Until Priceless/Worthless (Olynyk For Salary)

• Scottie Barnes - Want Scottie to be near worst 3PT shooter on team or top 9 players
• Immanuel Quickley - 40% 3PT shooter
• Ulrich Chomche - Potential 35% 3PT shooter big man
• Ja'Kobe Walter - Chance to be 40% 3PT shooter
• Gradey Dick - Chance to be 40% 3PT shooter
• Kelly Olynyk - Good shooter, and passing/veteran/Canadian/salary match are bonuses

Maybe - Keep But Maybe Trade Future (Play Now To ^ Value)

• RJ Barrett - Maybe trade for young 42.5% shooting PG and/or better 2-Way PF/SF 40%
• Davion Mitchell - Might not buy as 40% 3PT shooter, poor rebounder, good passer
• Ochai Agbaji - Might not buy as 40% 3PT shooter, like better at SG than SF, have SGs

No - Get Rid Of Or Trade Soon (Not Future Rotation Pieces)

• Jakob Poeltl - Can't shoot
• Bruce Brown - Not a good enough shooter
• Chris Boucher - Not a good enough shooter
• Bruno Fernando - Can't shoot
• Jamal Shead - Can't shoot, likely won't be 40% 3PT shooter, trade if gains any value
• Jonathan Mogbo - Can't shoot, Scottie's friend and upside like Barnes on the bench

Extra - Specific Player Notes (They're Good, But Shoot/Fit?)

• Agbaji - I like better at SG, and he's expendable with Barrett, Walter, Dick as SG scorers
• Shead - I get he'll push others in practice, but should even 3rd stringers be shooters?
• Poeltl - I get he's great, but I still don't like players who can't shoot at all, even at C
• Mitchell - Great trade, but I'd rather a 40% 3PT shooter who is next Quickley/VanVleet
• Mogbo - Could be awesome, but is playing Barnes and Mogbo together great shooting?
• Barrett - I like better at SG, and playing Barnes or a better 2-Way player/defender at SF

Update - November 19th, 2024

• Moved Agbaji from No to Maybe - Has shown the potential to shoot 3PT, which is key
• Moved Mogbo from Maybe to No - Double down on requiring shooting over athletes
• Agbaji - He is the type of player wanted for defense, as long as could shoot 40% 3PT
• Mogbo - I resisted criticizing a recent high draft pick with such high potential initially
• Defense like Agbaji is still highly desired second, but only if they can shoot great first
• Passing like Mogbo is still very desired third, but only if they could shoot good first

I think Alperen Sengun should play the PF position alongside a defensive center. He is an offensive force and a great playmaker who fits better as a point forward that focuses on offense, and he is not a great defensive rim protector or a big rebounding center.

I think "Lion" or "The Lion" would be a great nickname for Scottie Barnes.

• He attacks at close range but can surprise you from distance
• He is fast and can glide across the court at high speeds
• He has the size and skills to be a King Of The Jungle
• He works together with a coalition and likes to Roarrrr
• He protects the other players and people that are in his team
• The nickname isn't too well-known or used by someone else

I wonder if Raptors may be too good to get high 2025 pick, especially with Poeltl/Brown/Boucher. Mitchell/Agbaji/Vezenkov/Olynyk are older. Mogbo/Shead/Carlson are older prospects who can play now. Dick/Walter are young but can shoot. Barnes/Quickley/Barrett are poised to breakout.

• Jordan 3, Pippen 5, Grant 10, *Harper 8
• Robinson 1, Elliott 3, Duncan 1
• Tatum 3, Brown 3, Smart 6, *Irving 1
• DeRozan 8, Valanciunas 5, Ross 8
• Curry 7, Thompson 11, Barnes 7, *Bogut 1
• Barnes 4, ???, ???, *Barrett 3

Notes

• My 2024 draft trade idea
• Shooting & defense with Barnes
• Get younger with Reed/Jabari
• Lose 1 year, get high 2025 pick

Rockets

• Jakob Poeltl
• Bruce Brown
• Chris Boucher

Raptors

• Reed Sheppard (2024 #3)
• Jabari Smith
• Steven Adams
• Jeff Green
• Jae Tate

I've been watching and impressed with so many great new movies lately, that I sincerely enjoyed and heartily recommend. Challengers, Hit Man, Problemista, Suncoast, The Fall Guy, The League, LaRoy Texas (Violence), and Late Night With The Devil (Horror) are all excellent movies!

Here are my predictions for the 2023-2024 NBA standings, ranked by western and eastern conferences.

Western Conference

• 1 - Phoenix Suns
• 2 - Denver Nuggets
• 3 - Golden State Warriors
• 4 - New Orleans Pelicans
• 5 - Oklahoma City Thunder
• 6 - Sacramento Kings
• ----
• 7 - Los Angeles Clippers
• 8 - Dallas Mavericks
• 9 - Minnesota Timberwolves
• 10 - Houston Rockets
• ----
• 11 - Los Angeles Lakers
• 12 - Portland Trail Blazers
• 13 - Memphis Grizzlies
• 14 - San Antonio Spurs
• 15 - Utah Jazz

Eastern Conference

• 1 - Boston Celtics
• 2 - Milwaukee Bucks
• 3 - Philadelphia 76ers
• 4 - Toronto Raptors
• 5 - Cleveland Cavaliers
• 6 - Miami Heat
• ----
• 7 - Indiana Pacers
• 8 - Atlanta Hawks
• 9 - Brooklyn Nets
• 10 - New York Knicks
• ----
• 11 - Chicago Bulls
• 12 - Detroit Pistons
• 13 - Orlando Magic
• 14 - Charlotte Hornets
• 15 - Washington Wizards

Here is a summary of the general strengths and weaknesses of Raptors management over the last 10 years, using the benefit of hindsight to note possible major successes and mistakes.

Foresight And Future Of Raptors

• Idea - Raptors management, scouts, and analysts have had outstanding foresight

Because the Raptors management, scouts, analysts, and coaches have done such an amazing job selecting and developing players, the Raptors should still have a good team this year and going forward, even after losing VanVleet in free agency. Overall, the Raptors have had an otherworldly level of decision making, player development, and culture creation in the last 10 years. The Raptors have nailed and appropriately developed more lower draft picks they have made than possibly every other team, not to mention undrafted players. That, along with many other reasons, is why they have the second most wins of any team in the NBA over the last 10 years, while enjoying an incredible run from 2013-2023. The Warriors are the team with the most wins, and it took the Raptors beating them in the Final to get the Raptors their championship.

As I see it, the Raptors and Ujiri have had amazing foresight and good decision making in some general areas from 2013-2023. These areas which have traditionally been great strengths include:

• Reset Trades - Trading away a poor contract or player to improve - Anthony, Bargnani, Gay
• Like Trades - Making trades for key players who they like - Ibaka, Leonard, Trent, Poeltl
• Rebuilding - Rebuilding and growing a lower ranked team from scratch with no stars
• Developing - Developing all players well beyond their expected ability and value
• Drafting - Drafting good players who they like - Wright, Siakam, Anunoby, Barnes
• Signing - Signing undrafted and free agent role players who they like - VanVleet, Boucher
• Patience - Being patient while players and the team go through ups and downs
• Chemistry - Creating a culture of team chemistry, working together, and having fun

Foresight Improved With Hindsight

• Idea - Raptors management can be better by improving key weaknesses and mistakes

The fact that the Raptors have been such a good organization with exceptional player development and decision making overall does not mean that big mistakes have not been made, or that the team could not be situated much better for the present and future without those key mistakes. Firstly, I wonder if the Raptors have done a poor job seeing when they should trade away good players they like for future young players and picks. Their inability to make trades for the future is highlighted by what I see as two of the biggest asset management mistakes that the team has made from 2013-2023, with Lowry and VanVleet, which I write about in detail below. Secondly, I wonder if the Raptors have not capitalized on their excellent development of players and depth by trading away multiple players for a great player or future star player. They did accomplish this at least once, with solid results, with the trade of Valanciunas, Wright, and Miles for Gasol. However, they could have more often used their depth to take a gamble by trading 2, 3, or 4 players away to get 1 or 2 great or potentially great players for today or the future.

I might be wrong, but I wonder if these two general weaknesses, along with a couple of the major mistakes resulting from them, have significantly weakened the current and future potential of the Raptors team from what it could have been. The Raptors organization has had many more strengths and good decisions as opposed to weaknesses, poor decisions, and indecisions in the era from 2013-2023. However, the Raptors could have capitalized much better on their strengths of growing, developing, and drafting players if they had traded their good players that they liked in Lowry and VanVleet at the proper time, for some good young players and draft picks. They also could have used their strengths of developing, drafting, and depth to trade away multiple good players they like for a great player or future star player. Having patience is to be lauded, but indecision or inaction at the wrong times can also lead to poor results as well. Sometimes only hindsight allows one to reveal and recognize true weaknesses and mistakes which one can improve on to get better in the future.

As I see it, the Raptors and Ujiri have had some major mistakes, poor decision making, and indecision or inaction in some general areas from 2013-2023. These areas, which may have been weaknesses and could possibly be improved in the future, include:

• Future Trades - Trade players they like for great young players and picks - Lowry, VanVleet
• Depth Trades - Trade multiple players from depth into a great player or future star player

Hindsight And Mistake #1 - Lowry

• Idea - Raptors should have traded Lowry in 2020 offseason

The Raptors had a great 2019-2020 season. Masai decided that the team would "Run it back" before the season began. Lowry and VanVleet started together, which appeared to be a good decision by Nick Nurse, as VanVleet was a superior player to Powell and it allowed a great amount of ball handling and passing in the lineup, along with Siakam and Gasol. The team was exceptional again, even though they had lost Kawhi.

After this season, the Raptors should have started to move on a bit to the younger group and trade Lowry in the offseason. VanVleet was clearly ready to be the starting point guard, and Lowry and VanVleet were not the best pairing for another full season anyway. Lowry had a bounce back year points wise since Kawhi was gone, and was coming off being a 6-time straight All-Star at about age 33, so the Raptors could have gotten some good players and picks for him with a full year left on his contract. By trading Lowry's big contract for young players and picks, the Raptors could have signed and kept a center in either Ibaka or Gasol. In that way, they could have moved on from the older Lowry and Gasol, but still kept a center with experience and a good team together, but be younger and with some draft assets or young players built up by trading their star player in Lowry.

The lineup, not even including any great young player the Raptors might have gotten for Lowry, could have looked something like VanVleet, Anunoby, Siakam, Boucher, Ibaka. Or VanVleet, Powell, Anunoby, Siakam, Ibaka. Both Powell and Boucher had amazing seasons in 2019-2020 and were pushing to be starters. Boucher actually led the team in Win Shares according to Basketball Reference in the upcoming 2020-2021 season, an amazing feat, playing 24 minutes a game off the bench. I proposed an unlikely trade where the Raptors might have gotten the 2nd and 3rd picks in the draft for Lowry, and also suggested they take LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton with the picks, as an example.

What I have heard many people say and report is that the Raptors could not get much for Lowry at the 2020-2021 deadline, so they decided against trading him. I agree. I'm suggesting the mistake was not that Lowry was not traded at the deadline, but that the Raptors should have had the foresight to trade him in the previous offseason, a year before he was actually traded. Star players should be traded in the offseason, and older players should be traded before their value is diminished. Often this will be when the player has one year remaining on their contract, as was the case with Lowry.

Raptors 2020 and future strategy and lineup

Hindsight And Mistake #2 - VanVleet

• Idea - Raptors should have traded VanVleet in 2022 offseason

The Raptors had a solid bounce-back 2021-2022 season, finishing strong to get into 5th spot in the East, after finishing 12th the previous year. Barnes won rookie of the year and VanVleet was an All-Star for the first time. Siakam, who missed the start of the season with shoulder surgery, made an All-NBA team.

Before the start of the 2021-2022 year, Doug Smith wrote what seemed to be a very credible and informed piece in the Toronto Star after the Kyle Lowry trade. It laid out what appeared to be a vision for the future of the team, saying "They'd like a team of young, athletic players who are interchangeable for the most part, in a game growing more positionless by the season, and it’s a process to put that in place. Not a quick process, either, despite the sense that free agency began and ended in the first 36 hours."

After this season, the Raptors should have continued with their vision and traded VanVleet in the offseason, especially after he did not sign an extension immediately. VanVleet was coming off being an All-Star for the first time, increasing his value a fair amount. So again, like Lowry two years before, if the Raptors had the foresight to trade VanVleet in that offseason, they could have picked out and gotten some good young players or picks that they were interested in for him.

I do want to mention that there was another option in this current 2023 offseason which was available and could have allowed the Raptors to get value for one of their star players without losing them for nothing. If the Raptors did want to end up paying and keeping VanVleet instead of Siakam, maybe because he was such a great shooter and leader, they probably still could have. Instead, they could have proactively chosen to trade Siakam this offseason, possibly before free agency, freeing up money to sign VanVleet. In trading Siakam they likely could have gotten a better trade and assets and traded away the weaker shooter, so there were also positives for choosing VanVleet over Siakam.

Instead though, they chose not to trade Siakam in order to keep VanVleet instead. Then they ended up letting VanVleet walk this year, instead of choosing to trade him a year ago in the offseason, when they could have capitalized on his All-Star year and had the foresight to see they might not be able to keep him after he did not sign an extension right away in the 2022 offseason.

The Kyle Lowry deal will set off a chain reaction

Here are my predictions for the 2022-2023 NBA standings, ranked by western and eastern conferences.

Western Conference

• 1 - Denver Nuggets
• 2 - Minnesota Timberwolves
• 3 - Los Angeles Clippers
• 4 - Golden State Warriors
• 5 - New Orleans Pelicans
• 6 - Phoenix Suns
• ----
• 7 - Los Angeles Lakers
• 8 - Memphis Grizzlies
• 9 - Dallas Mavericks
• 10 - Sacramento Kings
• ----
• 11 - Portland Trail Blazers
• 12 - Houston Rockets
• 13 - Utah Jazz
• 14 - Oklahoma City Thunder
• 15 - San Antonio Spurs

Eastern Conference

• 1 - Brooklyn Nets
• 2 - Philadelphia 76ers
• 3 - Toronto Raptors
• 4 - Boston Celtics
• 5 - Atlanta Hawks
• 6 - Milwaukee Bucks
• ----
• 7 - Cleveland Cavaliers
• 8 - Miami Heat
• 9 - Chicago Bulls
• 10 - Indiana Pacers
• ----
• 11 - Charlotte Hornets
• 12 - Detroit Pistons
• 13 - Orlando Magic
• 14 - Washington Wizards
• 15 - New York Knicks

Here are my ideas and strategy for the potential lineup, depth chart, and final roster spots for the Toronto Raptors going into the 2022 season, now that they are heading into training camp.

This takes some points from the main ideas I previously noted in "Raptors 2022 offseason lineup changes", which I wrote shortly after the end of the season. They did follow a few of my ideas from that article already, including resigning Boucher, drafting a versatile and athletic center, and signing Champagnie to an NBA deal for now at least. And there have been some rumblings about Achiuwa having an increased role or even possibly starting as I had also crazily suggested.

Notes

• Make Achiuwa a starter and move Trent to the bench
• Give Hernangomez the 14th spot as I always thought he would make team
• Give Jackson the 15th spot over Champagnie as he is athletic and versatile
• Move Champagnie down to a 2W spot and Dowtin to Raptors 905 contract
• Make Flynn the backup PG because of good shooting and assists/turnover
• Play Koloko a lot as a main bench player in the first half of the season

Extras

• I wonder if Achiuwa's role should eventually be a 3-and-D small forward
• I wonder if Banton's role should eventually be a playmaking shooting guard
• Play the bench players much more this year and develop the young guys
• They likely can't, but try to keep Trent on bench always so he can get 6th man
• If Trent starts, the bench in my second lineup is a HUGE switchable lineup
• Thaddeus Young could be a possible small ball center over Koloko sometimes

Roster

• Tier 1 - Siakam, Barnes, Anunoby, VanVleet
• Tier 2 - Trent, Achiuwa, Koloko, Porter, Boucher
• Tier 3 - Flynn, Banton, Young, Jackson, Hernangomez
• Tier 4 - Champagnie, Birch, Harper

Lineup 1

• PG - VanVleet - Flynn - Banton
• SG - Anunoby - Trent - Jackson
• SF - Barnes - Porter - Young
• PF - Siakam - Boucher - Hernangomez
• C - Achiuwa - Koloko - Birch
• 2W - Champagnie - Harper

Lineup 2

• PG - VanVleet - Banton - Flynn
• SG - Trent - Porter - Jackson
• SF - Anunoby - Achiuwa - Young
• PF - Barnes - Boucher - Hernangomez
• C - Siakam - Koloko - Birch
• 2W - Champagnie - Harper

We'll now see if Nurse and company makes any of the other suggestions this year in either this article or my previous one, including moving Trent to the bench, playing Koloko a lot, and playing Flynn more this year than last year. Of course Flynn will be in a battle with Banton and it could go either way. I could also see a trade happening like Birch, Flynn, and a second round pick for Cam Reddish. A smaller trade like that would open up a roster spot to keep both Jackson and Champagnie on the roster, and Dowtin as a 3rd point guard behind Banton.

I also like the signings of Porter, Hernangomez, and Jackson, and that they didn't commit to two years like they have previously with players of their ilk. Porter is worth the two years of course. I find it particularly interesting that they have added a ton of versatile and athletic height since trading Lowry at the start of the previous season. Achiuwa, Barnes, Banton, and Young came the previous season. And now they kept Young and Boucher this offseason and potentially add Koloko, Porter, Hernangomez, and Jackson to make 6 tall and versatile signings to their main roster this offseason. That would leave VanVleet, Flynn, and Trent as the only remaining guys under 6'7" and they now have much more height overall than just a couple of seasons ago.

Mirror, mirror on the wall, what is the fairest trade for all?

Raptors

• Kevin Durant
• Kyrie Irving

Nets

• Pascal Siakam
• Gary Trent Jr.
• Khem Birch
• Malachi Flynn
• Svi Mykhaliuk
• Armoni Brooks
• 1st 2023, 2025
• Swap 2024